Abstract
This paper details an innovative approach which enables the analysis of small area population change across four decades. Population surfaces are generated using small area data (enumeration districts or output areas) for each Census from 1971 to 2011 inclusive. The paper details the methods used in the creation of these surfaces, and discusses the rationale behind this approach, arguing that grids represent the most appropriate model for assessing population distributions. Methods for grid creation are tested using pre-existing population grids for Northern Ireland as a benchmark. The method developed is then applied to create population grids for the rest of the UK for 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011. The changing population structures of small areas across these five time points are explored here to illustrate the value of this approach. The publically-available data resource – the final product of the ‘PopChange’ project – will facilitate exploration of long-term changes in populations over small areas. The paper argues that maximum advantage could be taken of the ‘big data revolution’ if such data were gridded in a similar way, allowing them to be placed in a longer-term historical context, using tools made available through the PopChange project.
Highlights
Analyses of change over time in small geographical areas are restricted by the availability of common variables and geographies (Martin, Dorling, & Mitchell, 2002)
The analyses of grids derived for Britain are detailed ; gridded total population counts are provided as examples of how population grids for multiple time points can be beneficial for enhancing our knowledge of changing population geographies
The kernel bandwidth used proved to be sensitive to population density and the quality of the postcode data available
Summary
Analyses of change over time in small geographical areas are restricted by the availability of common variables and geographies (Martin, Dorling, & Mitchell, 2002). Grids allow assessment of change without using a set of irregular zones which were designed for one particular Census year – suburban areas at the edge of large cities may have been represented by large zones in 1971 but small zones in 2011 as their population densities grew They allow straightforward assessment of changes in results with changes in scale – their size and shape are constant and they can be aggregated to explore how (for example) the clustering of population groups changes as the spatial resolution is coarsened. The analyses of grids derived for Britain are detailed ; gridded total population counts are provided as examples of how population grids for multiple time points can be beneficial for enhancing our knowledge of changing population geographies
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