Exploring the threshold for the start of respiratory syncytial virus infection epidemic season using sentinel surveillance data in Japan.

Abstract

An unusual seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Japan is observed in recent years after 2017, becoming challenging to prepare for: a seasonal shift from autumn-winter to summer-autumn in 2017-2019, no major epidemic in 2020, and an unusually high number of cases reported in 2021. To early detect the start-timing of epidemic season, we explored the reference threshold for the start-timing of the epidemic period based on the number of cases per sentinel (CPS, a widely used indicator in Japanese surveillance system), using a relative operating characteristic curve analysis (with the epidemic period defined by effective reproduction number). The reference values of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, and Aichi Prefectures were 0.41, 0.39, 0.42, and 0.24, respectively. The reference CPS value could be a valuable indicator for detecting the RSV epidemic and may contribute to the planned introduction of monoclonal antibody against RSV to prevent severe outcomes.