Exploring the temporal-spatial characteristics and determinants of high-quality development of city clusters in China

Abstract

The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the international situation have prompted the development of city clusters to focus more on resilience and the building of infrastructures and safeguards. Chinese-style modernization proposes a new realization path for the high-quality development (HQD) of city clusters, based on which an evaluation system for HQD indicators of city clusters is constructed. We also measured the HQD levels of 19 city clusters from 2011 to 2021 and analyzed their spatial differentiation characteristics, agglomeration evolution characteristics, and influencing factors by using kernel density, standard deviation ellipse, Moran's index, geographic detector, and geographically weighted regression. The study revealed that (1) the overall level of HQD of China's city clusters shows a trend of continuous growth, and there is obvious polarization in the high quality of city clusters in different regions. (2) The spatial distribution of HQD in city clusters decreased in the "East, Center and West" direction, but the spatial patterns of "Southeast highlighting" and "Northwest rising" became more obvious. (3) The HQD of city clusters shows obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics and overall presents a spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west", with the scope of the cold spot area gradually shrinking, and the hot spot area tends to spread outward, with mature city clusters at the core. (4) The influencing factors of HQD in Chinese city clusters are diverse, with financial levels, digital economics, human capital and green innovations having decreasing influence on HQD in city clusters but showing an obvious two-factor enhancement trend, with financial levels being able to effectively stimulate the driving potential of other factors. Financial levels can effectively stimulate the driving potential of other factors. (5) The coefficients of the driving factors affecting the HQD of city clusters vary significantly spatially, with human capital, financial levels and green innovations showing a north‒south hierarchical banded distribution of "high in the south and low in the north", and digital economy shows an east-west hierarchical belt distribution of "high west and low east". Based on the above conclusions, the realization path of accelerating the HQD of China's city clusters is proposed by optimizing the functional division of labor of the city clusters, giving full play to the comparative advantages of the hinterland city clusters, and relying on the high level of the city clusters for opening up.