Exploring the System Dynamics of COVID-19 and Reconfiguration of Emergency Medical Services

Muhammad K Ali,F Jordan Srour,Abbas Tarhini,Nabil Georges Badr,T Le Dinh,M Drăgoicea

doi:10.1051/itmconf/20224101004

Abstract

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are essential to the medical healthcare landscape. EMS play a crucial role in maximizing the overall expected survival probability of patients with various health emergencies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, peoples’ lifestyle changed and their decisions to seek medical assistance were mixed with fear. This affected the type and number of missions that EMS responded to worldwide. Furthermore, COVID-19 affected EMS systems in terms of response protocols and personal protective equipment levels. These changes influenced the EMS’ provision of these essential services – fluctuations in demand impacted capacity decisions, the need for PPE altered response times, and lockdowns influenced roadway dynamics. This research focuses on describing and analyzing the performance of a major EMS provider in Lebanon in terms of response time to emergency missions during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to previous years and to the context of EMS in other countries. Results show that the number of calls and number of missions dropped yet, the emergency response time was found to be higher than previous years. The change in response time is most strongly tied to capacity allocation and PPE protocols. This study is an initial step toward exploring EMS system dynamics, with the goal of effectively allocating resources for improved EMS service during periods of heightened uncertainty and variability.

Highlights

Introduction and backgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, on March 11, 2020 [1]
In an attempt to learn about the dynamics introduced by COVID-19 pandemic, this paper examines the effect of the pandemic on the response times; exploring what operational levers, the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems may have to enact to avoid significant degradations of service in Lebanon
Upon inspection of the weekly mission activity by the EMS provider in the years 2018 to 2021 (Figure 1), we find a strong correlation with historical events in the country (Table 2), the spread of the pandemic (Figure 2) and observe the following: 2018 and 2019 show a slight increase in weekly missions with a small increase timed with protests on October 17, 2019, which could be explained by a spike in demand on the resources of the EMS provider

Summary

Introduction

Introduction and backgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, on March 11, 2020 [1]. Different Emergency Medical Services (EMS) communities experienced varied utilization rates during the early stage of the pandemic. France [2], Copenhagen [3], and Saudi Arabia [4], experienced an increase in call volume while others experienced a decrease in call volume such as the United States [5], Ontario – Canada [6], Italy [7], and Finland [8]. EMS communities engage in preparedness training for pandemics and disaster response, the exact protocols required to effectively respond to COVID-19 while minimizing contagion were unanticipated. A study performed in Canada indicated that overall EMS missions decreased, with a particular drop in motorcycle accidents. A study performed in the United States found that the volume of calls decreased, but the severity of incidents increased [5]

Methods

Results

Conclusion