Exploring the Sustainability of China’s New Energy Vehicle Development: Fresh Evidence from Population Symbiosis

Abstract

It is particularly important to measure the growth prospects of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, as they can effectively reduce the negative effects of the greenhouse effect. The population dynamics analysis model provides a method to comprehensively evaluate the growth mechanism, mode, and development prospects of new energy vehicles. In this research, the sales data of 20 automobile manufacturing enterprises were counted from the website database of the China Automobile Industry Association, and their development mechanism, development mode, and development trend were analyzed in order to help researchers understand the development prospects of China’s new energy vehicle enterprises. The conclusion is that the analysis results of the single population logistic model show that the intrinsic growth rate of Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises is generally relatively low. The intrinsic growth rate of China’s new energy automobile enterprises is lower than that of other mature traditional automobile manufacturing enterprises in China. The level of intrinsic growth rate of new energy vehicle enterprises is similar to that of declining enterprises with significantly declining sales. The Lotka–Volterra model provides the analysis results of the growth mechanism driven by market demand of automobile manufacturing sample enterprises. The market driven mode of China’s new energy vehicle enterprises is not obvious. It is difficult for the current development mechanism of China’s new energy vehicle enterprises to achieve the sustainability of growth. The optimization results of the MCGP model show that China’s new energy vehicle enterprises should transform to a market-driven development model.