Exploring the Pathogen Diagnosis and Prognostic Factors of Severe COVID-19 Using Metagenomic Next-Generation Sequencing: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to identify pathogens and factors that predict the outcome of severe COVID-19 by utilizing metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) technology. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 56 severe COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital between December 2022 and March 2023. We analyzed the pathogen types and strains detected through mNGS and conventional microbiological testing and collected general patient information. Results: In this study, 42 pathogens were detected using mNGS and conventional microbiological testing. mNGS had a significantly higher detection rate of 90.48% compared to 71.43% for conventional testing (P=0.026). A total of 196 strains were detected using both methods, with a significantly higher detection rate of 70.92% for mNGS compared to 49.49% for conventional testing (P=0.000). The 56 patients were divided into a survival group (33 cases) and a death group (23 cases) based on clinical outcomes. The survival group had significantly lower age, number of pathogens detected by mNGS, number of pathogens detected by conventional testing, APACHE-II score, SOFA score, high-sensitivity troponin, creatine kinase-MB subtype, and lactate dehydrogenase compared to the death group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that these factors were risk factors for mortality in severe COVID-19 patients (P<0.05). In contrast, ROC curve analysis revealed that these factors had diagnostic values for mortality, with AUC values ranging from 0.657 to 0.963. The combined diagnosis of these indicators had an AUC of 0.924. Conclusion: The use of mNGS technology can significantly enhance the detection of pathogens in severe cases of COVID-19 and also has a solid ability to predict clinical outcomes.