Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Cereal Self-Sufficiency and Economic Growth: Implications for Sustainable Food Security

Abstract

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between cereal self-sufficiency and economic growth. Compiling a comprehensive balanced panel dataset encompassing 100 countries spanning the period from 1995 to 2020, this study conducts the panel analyses to examine how cereal selfsufficiency rates are associated with economic growth. Our empirical analyses yield illuminating insights into the stylized patterns of cereal self-sufficiency rates at various economic growth stages. These patterns highlight asymmetrical and nonlinear relationships between cereal exporting and importing countries. Exporting countries demonstrate a U-shaped curve, which indicates a propensity for amplifying domestic production, generating excess surpluses of cereals. In contrast, importing countries exhibit an inverted U-shaped curve, reflecting that challenging production conditions compel them to depend on international imports to meet their food demand.