Exploring the nonlinear impact of urbanization on pollutant emissions: A spatial approach

Abstract

Whether urbanization can effectively mitigate pollutant emissions has attracted intense scholarly attention. However, few studies have taken into consideration the spatial effects. This paper analyzes the effect of urbanization on pollutant emissions by utilizing panel data of 30 provinces between the years 2005–2017. Further, to clarify the underlying mechanisms of spatial spillover effects of pollutant emissions, this paper employs the spatial econometric model to empirically tests the influence of urbanization on pollutant emissions from both direct impacts and spatial spillover effects perspectives. The findings indicate that China's pollutant emissions have a significant positive autocorrelation from both global and local points of view, demonstrating the features of high- and low-value agglomeration. Moreover, we find that whereas the relationship of urbanization with pollutant emissions presents a U-shaped curve, that of economic development is an inverted U-shaped. Furthermore, urbanization, technology progress, foreign direct investment, economic development, and population show spatial spillover effects on pollutant emissions, but their influencing mechanisms vary substantially. Thus, some corresponding countermeasures and policy suggestions are proposed.