Abstract
The rate of malaria transmission is strongly determined by parasite development time in the mosquito, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), since the quicker parasites develop, the greater the chance that the vector will survive long enough for the parasite to complete development and be transmitted. EIP is known to be temperature-dependent but this relationship is surprisingly poorly characterized. There is a single degree-day model for EIP of Plasmodium falciparum that derives from a limited number of poorly controlled studies conducted almost a century ago. Here, we show that the established degree-day model greatly underestimates the rate of development of P. falciparum in both Anopheles stephensi and An. gambiae mosquitoes at temperatures in the range of 17–20°C. We also show that realistic daily temperature fluctuation further speeds parasite development. These novel results challenge one of the longest standing models in malaria biology and have potentially important implications for understanding the impacts of future climate change.
Highlights
The transmission of vector-borne diseases is strongly influenced by environmental temperature [1,2]
One of the key temperature dependencies in malaria transmission is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP; defined as the duration of sporogony), which describes the time it takes following an infectious blood meal for parasites to develop within a mosquito and become transmissible [8]
Most mechanistic models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission base estimates of EIP on the degree-day model of Detinova [9], which was founded on work by Moshkovsky [10], Moshkovsky & Rashina [11] and Nikolaev [12] among others: EIP(in days)
Summary
The transmission of vector-borne diseases is strongly influenced by environmental temperature [1,2]. One of the key temperature dependencies in malaria transmission is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP; defined as the duration of sporogony), which describes the time it takes following an infectious blood meal for parasites to develop within a mosquito and become transmissible [8]. In the Detinova model, 111 is the cumulative number of degree-days required for the parasite to complete development, and the effective temperature is the difference between the average ambient environmental temperature, T, and a lower temperature threshold of 168C.
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