Exploring the injury severity of vulnerable road users to truck crashes by ensemble learning

Abstract

Large numbers of vulnerable road users were killed in truck crashes. In this study, ensemble machine learning models are constructed to predict the injury severity of the vulnerable road user (VRU) to truck (VRU-T) crashes. The study is based on the five years (2017–2021) of VRU-T crash data in the Shandong Province from the Center for Accident Research in Zibo. The injury severity of VRUs is estimated using machine learning ensemble models- Stacking, Voting, Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Compared to the other three models, the Stacking has excellent predictive performance on the pedestrian and non-motorized datasets. Then, SHapley Additive exPlanations and Partial Dependence Plot box are introduced to analyze risk factors qualitatively and quantitatively. The innovative findings of this study are as follows: (1) as VRUs age, they are more likely to be seriously injured in truck crashes; (2) middle-aged truck drivers and truck drivers with medium driving experience increase the probability of VRUs being severe and fatally injured in truck crashes; (3) crashes involving heavy trucks, under signalized crossing, or on the national and provincial road and urban road have a positive effect on the crash severity for cyclists, and E-Bike riders.