Abstract
The recent resurgence of malaria incidence across epidemic regions in South Africa has been linked to climatic and environmental factors. An in-depth investigation of the impact of climate variability and mosquito abundance on malaria parasite incidence may therefore offer useful insight towards the control of this life-threatening disease. In this study, we investigate the influence of climatic factors on malaria transmission over Nkomazi Municipality. The variability and interconnectedness between the variables were analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis. Time-series analyses revealed that malaria cases significantly declined after the outbreak in early 2000, but with a slight increase from 2015. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence and time-lagged correlation analyses identified rainfall and abundance of Anopheles arabiensis as the major variables responsible for malaria transmission over the study region. The analysis further highlights a high malaria intensity with the variables from 1998–2002, 2004–2006, and 2010–2013 and a noticeable periodicity value of 256–512 days. Also, malaria transmission shows a time lag between one month and three months with respect to mosquito abundance and the different climatic variables. The findings from this study offer a better understanding of the importance of climatic factors on the transmission of malaria. The study further highlights the significant roles of An. arabiensis on malaria occurrence over Nkomazi. Implementing the mosquito model to predict mosquito abundance could provide more insight into malaria elimination or control in Africa.
Highlights
Malaria is a devastating vector-borne disease dominant in most tropical countries especially sub-Saharan Africa
Malaria transmission shows a time lag between one month and three months with respect to mosquito abundance and the different climatic variables. e findings from this study offer a better understanding of the importance of climatic factors on the transmission of malaria. e study further highlights the significant roles of An. arabiensis on malaria occurrence over Nkomazi
A total of 1,790 cases were confirmed in Mpumalanga Province Journal of Environmental and Public Health between April and June 2017 [1]. e upsurge has been linked to climatic and environmental factors and a reduction in indoor residual spraying (IRS) in areas where malaria cases had declined in recent seasons [1]
Summary
Malaria is a devastating vector-borne disease dominant in most tropical countries especially sub-Saharan Africa. During March 2017, a total of 9478 malaria cases and 76 deaths were reported over South Africa compared to 6385 malaria cases and 58 deaths in the 2015/16 season [1]. E upsurge has been linked to climatic and environmental factors and a reduction in indoor residual spraying (IRS) in areas where malaria cases had declined in recent seasons [1]. Malaria in Mpumalanga Province is seasonal, beginning with the first rainfalls in October, getting to a peak in January, and remaining high until May. transmission is still unstable and liable to intermittent outbreaks [2]. E An. arabiensis occurs in all the three malariaendemic provinces of South Africa; it is known to be the dominant vector in Nkomazi Municipality [4]. As reported by Adeola et al [7] within the same study area as this current study, the vectors are found to be high in areas with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 0.41 and 0.50. ese are dominantly areas under intensive irrigation which cover about 18% of the total land area [5]
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