Exploring the Implementation of Unpredictability in the Field of Aviation Security

Abstract

Regulations for aviation security have tended to be reactionary, responding to terrorist attacks by implementing more stringent measures. This has resulted in a more predictable system that can make it easier for unlawful interference. To address risks from both external (terrorist attacks) and internal (insider threats) sources, introducing unpredictability – such as varying security controls – proactively could be beneficial. A study conducted semi-structured interviews with security experts in order to explore how and why unpredictability is implemented at airports. The results revealed that European airport stakeholders apply unpredictable measures for various reasons: complementing the security system, outmaneuvering opponents, and improving human factor aspects of the security system. Unpredictable measures are applied at different locations by various controlling authorities across different forms; however, their deployment lacks systematic evaluation. Additionally, findings indicated that varying security controls may help mitigate insider threats by reducing insider knowledge. Further research should focus on evaluating the deterrent effect of unpredictability and providing recommendations on how unpredictable measures can be effectively realized proactively to address emerging risks.