Exploring the impact of technological disruptions in the automotive retail: A futures studies and systems thinking approach based on causal layered analysis and causal loop diagram

Abstract

This paper investigates the complex mechanism and the impact of the "CASE" (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, and Electrification) technological disruptions on the automotive retail industry. A focus group in South Korea, consisting of industry stakeholders and experts, conducted two workshops. Causal Layered Analysis, a futures studies theory/methodology, was adopted to formulate the overall system's Causal Loop Diagram, a systems thinking methodology, to present the dynamic behaviors and sets of causations in the entire system. The result indicates that disruptive technologies affect the traditional automotive retail business model. However, it was found that strategic leverages create alternatives and desirable "new" reality turning the technology's risks into opportunities through backcasting. The study suggests a significant theoretical value by presenting a new qualitative research framework that synthesizes futures studies and systems thinking approaches, maximizing their potential. A systematic framework-based business foresight process should be emphasized for organizations to survive in a rapidly changing environment.