Exploring the Impact of Socioeconomic and Natural Factors on Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence in China (2013-2019) using Explainable Machine Learning: A Nationwide Study

Abstract

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) stands as a significant and prevalent infectious disease in China. Integrating 13 natural and socioeconomic factors, we conduct nine machine learning (ML) models alongside the Tree-Structured Parzen Estimator to predict the monthly PTB incidence rate from 2013 to 2019 in mainland China. With explainable ML techniques, our research highlights that population size, per capita GDP, and PM10 concentration emerge as the primary determinants influencing the PTB incidence rate. We delineate both the independent and interactive impacts of these factors on the PTB incidence rate. Furthermore, crucial thresholds associated with factors influencing the PTB incidence rate are identified. Taking factors that have a positive effect on reducing the incidence rate of PTB as an example, the thresholds at which the effects of factors PM2.5, PM10, O3, and RH on the incidence rate change from increase to decrease are 105.5 μg/m3, 75.5 μg/m3, 90.8 μg/m3, and 72.3% respectively. Our work will contribute valuable insights for public health interventions.