Abstract
Carbon emissions (CE) reduction has been an important measure to control global warming. With the deepening of internationalization, the import and export trade can have a significant influence on CE. In this study, the panel data of 282 cities in China from 2003 to 2016 were employed, and linear regression analysis with fixed effects, feasible generalized least squares and Driscoll–Kraay estimators were performed to assess the separate impacts of import and export trade on CE. The results show that there is a positive correlation between imports and CE, while the relationship is contrary for exports. The panel threshold regression method was further used for regression, and it found that there was one threshold value for gross domestic product (GDP) and two threshold values for gross industrial output (GIO) in the model. According to the division of threshold value, the impact of import trade on CE will turn from positive to negative, while the impact of export trade on reducing CE will be further enhanced. The structure of China’s import and export trade are used to illustrate the underlying mechanism of the different effects. For controlling CE in international trade, China should import more high-tech products to upgrade high-emission industries, and reduce the proportion of labor-intensive products exported.
Highlights
Over the past 10 years (2010–2019), China’s fossil carbon dioxide emissions (CE) have grown at an annual growth rate of 1.2%, dominating the global growth trend [1]
(1) Using the fixed effect (FE), feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and DK linear regression methods, it is found that import trade is positively correlated with CE, while export trade is negatively correlated with CE, and the influence of exports is obviously greater than that of imports
Based on the panel data of 282 cities in China from 2003 to 2016, the effects of import trade, as well as export trade, on CE were studied through linear regression and panel threshold regression analyses, and the following conclusions can be obtained: (1)
Summary
Over the past 10 years (2010–2019), China’s fossil carbon dioxide emissions (CE) have grown at an annual growth rate of 1.2%, dominating the global growth trend [1]. Since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of its imports and exports is increasing year by year. Imports and exports in international trade have different influences on CE. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8968 dependent on imports for their CE, but the other five are the opposite Against such backgrounds, it is necessary to analyze this issue from the city level. We calculated the CE of 282 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016, and these data were used for regression analysis. On this basis, the panel threshold model can help to explore the relationship between imports and exports and CE in a nonlinear framework.
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