Exploring the impact of climate change on flood risk at cultural heritage sites using a GIS-based SCS-CN method: A case study of Shanxi province, China

Abstract

Cultural heritage sites in China are facing an increasing risk of flooding caused in part by global climate change. This paper aims to provide a new method used to predict flood risk of cultural heritage sites while considering the impact of climate change. Using a GIS-based Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS–CN) method, we assessed the risk of flooding at cultural heritage sites in Shanxi Province by the end of 21st century under three different climate change scenarios, namely SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585. The results show that 268 sites are currently at risk from a 100-year storm event. By 2099, about 100 additional cultural heritage sites are projected to be threatened by flooding. The cultural heritage sites protected at the city and county level are generally more vulnerable to climate change. In addition, those along the Fen River in Taiyuan City, the Qin and Dan rivers in Jincheng City, and the upstream region of the Zhuozhang River in Changzhi City also have relatively high flood risks. These findings can provide insights for climate change adaptive action and cultural heritage conversation in Shanxi Province.