Exploring the future of the bioeconomy: An expert-based scoping study examining key enabling technology fields with potential to foster the transition toward a bio-based economy

Abstract

As new technologies based on renewable raw materials and biological principles are becoming available, bioeconomic transformation could help to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, bioeconomic transformation is not necessarily sustainable. To design effective enabling and regulatory governance frameworks for bio-based transformation, policy makers have to identify potentially game-changing future technologies and assess associated sustainability gains and risks. Drawing on the concept of key enabling technologies (KETs) put forward by the European Commission (EC) in 2009, this paper defines KETs for the bioeconomy. Based on an international expert survey, we identified KET criteria for bioeconomic transformation and developed overarching super-categories describing technology pathways and criteria dimensions according to the existing society–environment–economy triangle. In this way, this study contributes not only in providing advice allowing new technologies to foster but also in elucidating relationships between the regional origin and the perceived future of bio-based technology development. Moreover, bioeconomy KET visions from different stakeholders have been analyzed, thus providing a basis for future technology research, evaluation, politics, and management.