Exploring the future of carbon capture and utilisation by combining an international Delphi study with local scenario development

Abstract

This article identifies the factors that, according to international experts, will have substantial effects on the future development and commercialisation of carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) technologies. A two-round online Delphi study with 15 international experts in the field of CCU enabled us to explore the main items within five impact categories: (1) benefits, (2) risks, (3) future developments, (4) demand, and (5) supply constraints. Based on the results of the Delphi study, we constructed 4 future scenarios that represent how the CCU sector could develop within 10 years, using a local scenario development workshop with 9 experts from within Flanders (Belgium) and the Netherlands. We used a deductive, explorative scenario development method, which resulted in a two-by-two scenario matrix. We find that the local experts consider the role of the government and the development of CCU costs to be the most uncertain factors and could have the highest impact on the development of the sector within the next 10 years. Our insights can be instructive for facilitating the process of scenario planning for CCU development activities. Finally, although we work with a regionally specific case study, the same method could be implemented in other regions, using the general findings from our Delphi study as a starting point for the scenario development.