Exploring the Feasibility of Winter Wheat Freeze Injury by Integrating Grey System Model with RS and GIS

Abstract

Winter wheat freeze injury is one of the main agro-meteorological disasters affecting wheat production. In order to evaluate the severity of freeze injury on winter wheat systematically, we proposed a grey-system model (GSM) to monitor the degree and the distribution of the winter wheat freeze injury. The model combines remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technology. It gave examples of wheat freeze injury monitoring applications in Gaocheng and Jinzhou of Hebei Province, China. We carried out a quantitative evaluation method study on the severity of winter wheat freeze injury. First, a grey relational analysis (GRA) was conducted. At the same time, the weights of the stressful factors were determined. Then a wheat freezing injury stress multiple factor spatial matrix was constructed using spatial interpolation technology. Finally, a winter wheat freeze damage evaluation model was established through grey clustering algorithm (GCA), and classifying the study area into three sub-areas, affected by severe, medium or light disasters. The evaluation model were verified by the Kappa model, the overall accuracy reached 78.82% and the Kappa coefficient was 0.6754. Therefore, through integration of GSM with RS images as well as GIS analysis, quantitative evaluation and study of winter wheat freeze disasters can be conducted objectively and accurately, making the evaluation model more scientific.