Exploring the Effects of Industrial Structure, Technology, and Energy Efficiency on China’s Carbon Intensity and Their Contributions to Carbon Intensity Target

Feng Wang,Min Wu,Jiachen Hong

doi:10.3390/su12198016

Abstract

To achieve the national carbon intensity (NCI) target, China should adopt effective mitigation measures. This paper aims to examine the effects of key mitigation measures on NCI. Using the input-output table in 2017, this paper establishes the elasticity model of NCI to investigate the effects of industrial development, intermediate input coefficients, energy efficiency, and residential energy saving on NCI, and further evaluates the contributions of key measures on achieving NCI target. The results are shown as follows. First, the development of seven sectors will promote the increase of NCI while that of 21 sectors will reduce NCI. Second, NCI will decrease significantly with the descending of intermediate input coefficients of sectors, especially electricity production and supply. Third, improving energy efficiency and residential energy saving degree could reduce NCI, but the latter has limited contribution. Fourth, the development of all sectors will reduce NCI by 10.11% in 2017–2022 if sectors could continue the historical development trends. Fifth, assuming that sectors with rising intermediate input coefficients would keep their coefficients unchanged in the predicting period and sectors with descending coefficients would continue the historical descending trend, the improvement of technology and management of all sectors will reduce NCI by 14.02% in 2017–2022.

Highlights

Global warming has been continuously threatening sustainable development of human society
In all elasticity of national carbon intensity (NCI) to economic variables calculated in this paper, the elasticity with greater absolute values was the elasticity of NCI to intermediate input coefficients of electricity production and supply, metal smelting, chemical industry, and nonmetal mineral products, the elasticity of NCI to the development of electricity production and supply, other services, metal smelting, and wholesale and retail, the elasticity of NCI to the coal utilization efficiency in electricity production and supply, and the coke utilization efficiency in metal smelting. These results indicate that adjusting industrial structure, reducing intermediate input coefficients, and improving energy utilization efficiency will contribute to the reduction of NCI, while the energy saving degree in the residential sector has a limited impact on NCI
This paper investigates the elasticity of NCI in China to industrial development, intermediate input coefficients, and energy efficiency by establishing the elasticity model of NCI based on the input-output model, and further evaluates the contributions of key mitigation measures on achieving NCI target

Summary

Introduction

Global warming has been continuously threatening sustainable development of human society. As the key component of greenhouse gas (GHG) and primary cause of global warming, carbon dioxide has increasingly become the focus of the world. In this context, countries all over the world pay high attention to climate change and formulate environmental policies to reduce carbon emissions. China has become the world’s largest carbon emitter [1], accounting for 29% of global carbon emissions in 2016 [2]. The carbon intensity target shows China’s ambition to control GHG emissions. To achieve the reduction target of China’s carbon intensity is still an arduous task

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Discussion

Conclusion