Exploring the Effects of Fertility Change on Religiosity in the Twenty-First Century: A Cross-National Analysis

Abstract

Using multi-level data from the World Bank, the United Nations, the statistical yearbooks, and the cumulative World Values Survey, this chapter explores the effects of fertility change on religiosity in the 21st Century. Drawing on multiple literatures from population and religious studies, it is hypothesized that fertility declines may lead to eventual reductions in religious participation, salience, and belief. Country-level analyses from a sample of 54 countries lend credence to this hypothesis. Results indicate that the rate of fertility change is significantly and consistently associated with aggregate religious attendance, salience, and belief. Moreover, consistent with this central hypothesis, multi-level analyses show that number of children is positively associated with individual-level religious attendance, prayer, salience, and belief in God, whereas country-level fertility decline is inversely associated with each aspect of individual-level religiosity. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.