Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies.

Mikhail K Zhemchuzhnikov,Thomas K Lameris,Tom S L Versluijs,Christiaan Both,Jan A Van Gils,Jeroen Reneerkens

doi:10.1002/ece3.7346

Mikhail K Zhemchuzhnikov, Thomas K Lameris + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7346

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Abstract

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life‐history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Highlights

We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability
We found that shifts in food phenology were faster at higher latitudes, but only for trends that were reported significant (Figure 3b), while shifts in bird phenology did not show such a pattern (Figure 3c)
Our analyses showed no obvious general factors explaining the occurrence of phenological mismatches, food phenology advanced faster at higher latitudes for trends that were reported as significant, while changes in bird phenology did not vary with latitude

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

The globe is getting warmer: Land and ocean surface temperatures on the planet have increased by 0.87°C between 1850 and 2015 (IPCC, 2019), and global mean surface temperatures during the last decade (2010–2019) were the warmest on record (WMO, 2020). Rates of advancement differ between taxa (Both et al, 2009; Ge et al, 2015; Høye et al, 2007; Ovaskainen et al, 2013; Root et al, 2003; Thackeray et al, 2010), potentially inducing or increasing so-called “phenological mismatches,” that is, disruptions of synchronous interactions between ecologically coupled species Such interactions can either be mutualistic, for instance between plants and pollinators, or antagonistic, usually between consumers and their food source; the latter disruption being coined “trophic mismatch” (Renner & Zohner, 2018). Trophic mismatches typically come about when phenology of the food is advancing more rapidly (or slowly) than phenology of their consumers, because consumers have difficulties to advance (or delay) their reproductive phenology at the same pace

| METHODS

Method of measuring food

| DISCUSSION

Findings

| CONCLUSION