Exploring the cognitive value of technology foresight: The case of the Cisco Technology Radar

Abstract

There is much literature on how corporate foresight should be practiced, but fewer explanations of through which mechanisms it creates value. We seek to deepen this understanding by applying a cognitive lens. We mainly explore how and why foresight can influence ways of processing information, first conceptually and then empirically through the case of the Cisco Technology Radar. Through consulting multiple individuals, opposed to focusing solely on statements from top managers or observable outputs on the firm level, we uncover a broad set of “hidden values” from this technology foresight initiative. We conclude that a critical mechanism of a system such as the radar is its probing of analytical thinking, as well as its way of making people connect and exchange views across functions and departments. We also observe that deeper and more frequent involvement corresponds with greater perceived value of the system. Our findings have implications for research seeking to further understand through which mechanisms foresight creates value, and for the practice of designing, implementing and motivating for participation in technology foresight.