Abstract
The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.
Highlights
The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been discussed in academic literature for several decades
It is clear that climate change is one of the most significant threats that mankind will need to address in the coming decades, and the potential impacts of climate variability and change on migration and conflict will remain an important area of research and policy planning
Our review of the literature on the climate-migration-conflict nexus suggests that scholars generally agree that climate change has the potential to lead to increased migration and increased risk of conflict
Summary
The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been discussed in academic literature for several decades. Policy makers and media sources recognize climate as a security issue Despite this growing concern and focus on climate change and conflict, uncertainty remains regarding the pathways linking climate change to migration to conflict. A number of different pathways between climate change and conflict have been proposed and discussed These include declines in agricultural productivity leading to food shortages, water scarcity, and competition for mineral resources (including gas and oil) [22]. The climate-migration-conflict pathway has received increased focus from policy makers and the media [23]. Despite (and perhaps in response to) the fact that this issue is viewed as relatively linear and even deterministic in the media, scholars have been increasingly cautious when discussing the climate-migration-conflict pathway. There remains no real consensus about whether or not this pathway exists, whether it can be considered causal, and how future research could fill critical knowledge gaps
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