Exploring the association of metal mixture in blood to the kidney function and tumor necrosis factor alpha using machine learning methods

Abstract

This research aimed to approach relationships between metal mixture in blood and kidney function, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) by machine learning. Metals levels were measured by Inductively Couple Plasma Mass Spectrometry in blood from 421 participants. We applied K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Naive Bayes classifier (NB), Support Vector Machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Categorical boosting (CatBoost), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Whale Optimization-based XGBoost (WXGBoost) to identify the effect of plasma metals, TNF-α, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR by CKD-EPI equation). We conducted not only toxic metals, lead (Pb), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd) but also included trace essential metals, selenium (Se), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cobalt (Co), to predict the interaction of TNF-α, TNF-α/white blood count, and eGFR. The high average TNF-α level group was observed among subjects with higher Pb, As, Cd, Cu, and Zn levels in blood. No associations were shown between the low and high TNF-α level group in blood Se and Co levels. Those with lower eGFR group had high Pb, As, Cd, Co, Cu, and Zn levels. The crucial predictor of TNF-α level in metals was blood Pb, and then Cd, As, Cu, Se, Zn and Co. The machine learning revealed that As was the major role among predictors of eGFR after feature selection. The levels of kidney function and TNF-α were modified by co-exposure metals. We were able to acquire highest accuracy of over 85% in the multi-metals exposure model. The higher Pb and Zn levels had strongest interaction with declined eGFR. In addition, As and Cd had synergistic with prediction model of TNF-α. We explored the potential of machine learning approaches for predicting health outcomes with multi-metal exposure. XGBoost model added SHAP could give an explicit explanation of individualized and precision risk prediction and insight of the interaction of key features in the multi-metal exposure.