Abstract
In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term ‘event’ occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.
Highlights
The consequences of climate-driven and climate-related change are most negatively experienced by those in low income economies in the Tropics (IPCC, 2014)
Where societal reliance on a small suite of local natural resources is high and where ecological systems are degraded or low in diversity, the implications for system resilience to extreme weather events are clear. Such conditions are not generalizable across the diverse geographies of low income economies in the Tropics (Adger, 2000), and as we set out the case for in this paper, they cannot be considered in the absence of temporal context either
The paper is the outcome of a workshop held in October 2017, which brought together research teams from projects funded under the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) “Understanding the Impacts of the current El Niño” programme to identify common themes across our work
Summary
The consequences of climate-driven and climate-related change are most negatively experienced by those in low income economies in the Tropics (IPCC, 2014). Extreme short-term weather events, and interdecadal variability, occur against a backdrop of longer-term changes in climates (Easterling et al, 2000), to which systems display complex responses (Schurman et al, 2018, von Buttlar et al, 2018) and are differently adapted and resilient In response to both climatic and nonclimatic drivers, historical land management and use of natural resources, governance regimes, and social and cultural interactions might contribute to the building of social cohesion and ecological health (i.e. the building of resilience) (Berkes and Folke, 2002, Olsson et al, 2004). We conclude by drawing out the contributions of this work to both the theorization of socio-ecological resilience and general lessons for broad efforts towards ‘building’ climate change resilience
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