Exploring techno-economic scenarios in an input–output model

Abstract

The dynamic input–output model DIMITRI (Dynamic Input–output Model to study the Impacts of Technology Resulted Innovations) can be used for long-term scenario explorations on technology, demand and environmental effects. The model describes at a sectoral level the relations and dynamics between consumption, production and emissions. Technologies are introduced bottom-up at a sectoral level, through variations on the inputs from other sectors and by changes in the coefficients for capital, labour and emissions. This paper presents a methodology for future explorations of technologies in four scenarios, based on the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario framework. Trend analysis combines detailed information on specific technologies. Differentiations are made between scenarios, based on their specific storylines. The adjustment of coefficients influences model outcomes such as production, balance of trade and emissions. This paper briefly outlines the methodology and presents the main outcomes for four scenarios for the period 2000–2030.