Abstract
Technical decision-makings (TDMs) are a vital part of the decision-makings in construction megaprojects, facing high risks brought by technical complexity, dynamic environment, and subject cognition. Identifying technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) and exploring their interactions are important in megaproject management. Due to the high complexity of TDMs in megaprojects, TDMRs are complex and diverse. However, there is a lack of research on exploring the systematic TDMRs in megaprojects. To address this gap in knowledge, this paper aims to better understand the dynamic complexity of TDMRs in megaprojects by identifying the risks and exploring their interactions from a dynamic and systematic perspective. Grounded theory (GT) and system dynamics (SD) were adopted for this research. First, the GT was used to identify TDMRs in megaprojects and create a conceptual model depicting the relationships among TDMRs. Then, an SD model characterizing the causal structure of the TDMRs system in megaprojects is developed in both qualitative and quantitative manners. The developed model involves interrelationships among environmental risks, decision-making process risks, and decision-making execution process risks. After the validation of the model, a model simulation is conducted to predict the dynamic evolution process of the TDMRs. As a result, a multilayer risk list consisting of 42 index layer risk indicators, 13 field layer risk indicators, and 3 standard layer risk indicators is identified. The SD modeling results show that these multilevel TDMRs interact dynamically and have intricate influences on the total risk level of TDMs in megaprojects. The results of this study could be useful for decision-makers to identify and mitigate TDMRs in megaprojects.
Highlights
Construction megaprojects are characterized by significant technical complexity that requires multitechnology integrations [1–3]
In the open coding step, by identifying and describing overall constructs relevant to technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) based on the collected data, 97 key concepts were extracted through line-by-line and sentenceby-sentence analysis. en, the 97 key concepts were summarized as 42 initial codes (A1-A42)
Ere are various complicated scenarios in the actual TDMRs system. It is the effect of risk interactions that inflates risk levels, which is the reason why this study explores the TDMRs in megaprojects systematically and dynamically
Summary
Construction megaprojects are characterized by significant technical complexity that requires multitechnology integrations [1–3]. Substantial technical decision-makings (TDMs) are required in megaprojects on almost all management hierarchies [4]. E TDMs refer to the process of identifying and analyzing key problems, as well as developing, selecting, and implementing technical schemes to resolve the problems. E outcome of a TDM process is a technical decision-making scheme, consisting of decision objectives, key variables, measures, and criteria [7]. E complexity of TDMs comprises uncertainties and ambiguities (e.g., dynamic environment, ambiguities of decisionmaking goals, etc.), as well as the complex interrelationships among influencing factors in TDM issues Technical decision-making risk (TDMR) is an extension of project risk and decision-making risk [13, 14]. E dynamic complexity makes TDMRs in megaprojects highly interrelated, and the risks are transmitted between the internal and external environments of the system [20]. It is imperative to examine the dynamic interactions among TDMRs
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