Exploring signatures-based calibration of hydrological models for prediction in ungauged basins.

Abstract

<p>One of the open challenges in catchment hydrology is prediction in ungauged basins (PUB), i.e. being able to predict catchment responses (typically streamflow) when measurements are not available. One of the possible approaches to this problem consists in calibrating a model using catchment response statistics (called signatures) that can be estimated at the ungauged site.<br>An important challenge of any approach to PUB is to produce reliable and precise predictions of catchment response, with an accurate estimation of the uncertainty. In the context of PUB through calibration on regionalized streamflow signatures, there are multiple sources of uncertainty that affect streamflow predictions, which relate to:</p><ul><li>The use streamflow signatures, which, by synthetizing the underlying time series, reduce the information available for model calibration;</li> <li>The regionalization of streamflow signatures, which are not observed, but estimated through some signature regionalization model;</li> <li>The use of a rainfall-runoff model, which carries uncertainties related to input data, parameter values, and model structure.</li> </ul><p>This study proposes an approach that separately accounts for the uncertainty related to the regionalization of the signatures from the other types; the implementation uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to infer the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model using stochastic streamflow signatures. <br>The methodology is tested in six sub-catchments of the Thur catchment in Switzerland; results show that the regionalized model produces streamflow time series that are similar to the ones obtained by the classical time-domain calibration, with slightly higher uncertainty but similar fit to the observed data. These results support the proposed approach as a viable method for PUB, with a focus on the correct estimation of the uncertainty.</p>