Exploring Sensitivity of Phenology to Seasonal Climate Differences in Temperate Grasslands of China Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

Abstract

The affiliation between vegetation phenology and seasonal climate (start and end times of the growing season, or SOS and EOS) provides a basis for acquiring insight into the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to the effects of climate change. Although climate warming is an important factor affecting the advancement or delay of plant phenology, understanding the sensitivity of phenology to seasonal variation in climate factors (e.g., local air temperature, precipitation) is generally lacking under different climate backgrounds. In this study, we investigated the interannual variability of grassland phenology and its spatial variation in temperate regions of China based on satellite-derived products for the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and weather data acquired from 2001 to 2020. We found that due to differences in local climate conditions, the effects of seasonal warming and precipitation on phenology were divergent or even opposite during the 20 years. The sensitivities of the start of growing season (SOS) to both spring temperature and last-winter precipitation was controlled by mean annual precipitation in terms of spatial variation. The SOS in the semi-humid (200–400 mm) region was most sensitive to spring temperature, advancing 5.24 days for each 1 °C rise in the average spring temperature (p < 0.05), while it was most sensitive to last-winter precipitation in arid regions (<200 mm), with SOS advancing up to 2.23 days for every 1 mm increase in the last-winter precipitation (p < 0.05). The end of growing season (EOS) was sensitive to autumn temperature, being delayed 10.13 days for each 1 °C rise in the average autumn temperature in regions with temperatures between −10 °C and −5 °C (p < 0.05). The uncertainty in the determination of the EOS could conceivably be greater than the determination of the SOS due to the dual effects of pre-autumn climate and growth constraints induced by declining fall temperatures. The effect of atmospheric warming on grassland phenology was lessened with increased atmospheric and soil aridity, suggesting that the interaction of regional drought and climate warming is an important source for local-to-regional differences and uncertainties in grass phenological response.