Exploring satellite based temporal forecast modelling of Aedes aegypti oviposition from an operational perspective

Abstract

Aedes aegypti, responsible for the transmission of Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika in Latin America, represents a large public health problem for the region. For this reason, several efforts have been made to use geospatial technologies to support vector control actions developed by the public health sector.Therefore, this study establishes the base for the application of freely available remotely sensed products to assess Ae. aegypti oviposition activity from an operational perspective for the entire north region of Argentina (region with a high risk of arbovirus transmission). In particular, we improve, in several aspects from an operative vision, previous studies with a concurrent objective.This study includes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, and Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM)) / Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) as remotely sensed (RS) variables in addition to integral LST variables for modelling a set of four years of weekly oviposition data (August 2011 – July 2015).From an initial set of 42 variables (the original RS and their lags), a subset of 11 variables were selected and retained based on the correlation between them and the oviposition series. Using these data as independent variables, we develop temporal forecasting models of Ae. aegypti oviposition using a linear multivariate method, including its validation. Several models for different time periods were obtained and a final model with prediction capacity (R2 = 0.7, p < 0.05) was established.With these results, an improved, complete set of satellite derived variables was established as the basis for the national operational risk system that was already being used in Argentina which could be used for health decision makers to develop oriented control actions.