Exploring return intentions from the young migrant’s point of view

Abstract

Purpose: This paper investigates migration behaviors of young migrants to identify the main factors influencing their return intentions. Recognizing that return migration decision-making is a complex and multidimensional process, the paper sheds light on two under-researched topics in migration literature: return migration intentions and young migrants. Methodology: Using a mixed theory approach that accounts for both individual and contextual factors as determinants of possible return, the paper utilizes data obtained through surveys of Croatian migrants. It proposes an ordered logit regression model based on three composite variables—economic success, social integration, and cultural shock—to calculate the return intention probability. Results: The results show that the variables of economic success, social integration, and cultural shock, which were determined through factor analysis, play a significant role in shaping return migration intentions. In particular, the perceived level of social integration has the most significant influence on the likelihood of intention to return, indicating that young migrants are not solely or predominantly motivated by economic factors. Conclusion: The findings suggest that the factors influencing migrants’ return intentions overlap, and as a result, no single theory is adequate for providing a comprehensive understanding of young migrants’ return intentions. For the majority of Croatian migrants, it seems that the myth of return does not exist; they do not plan to return. These findings constitute a valuable foundation for developing migration policy recommendations for both the host and home countries.