Exploring relationships between ENSO and vegetation vigour in the south-east USA using AVHRR data

Abstract

This research explores the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), captured by equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and interannual variation in vegetation vigour in the southeast USA, captured by Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), for the period 1982-1992. The moving average and 'baseline' methods (anomaly from the long term mean) were used to extract interannual patterns in the NDVI signature for croplands, deciduous forests and evergreen forests. The ENSO cycle was measured using mean SST anomalies and the percentage of SST cells above certain threshold values (e.g. 1.0° C above the long term mean). The baseline method indicated a weak, yet persistent, negative correlation between ENSO warm phase events and vegetation vigour in the south-east USA. The moving average method yielded similar results but produced higher correlation values (-0.45 to-0.76, significant at the 0.01 level). Use of the 2.0° C threshold SST anomaly was found to yield the highest correlation values as it captures not only the presence but also the intensity of ENSO warm phase events. These results indicate that there is a clear and recognizable, though inconsistent, relationship between ENSO and vegetation vigour in the south-east USA.