Exploring red cell distribution width as a potential risk factor in emergency bowel surgery-A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

Increased preoperative red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with higher mortality following non-cardiac surgery in patients older than 65 years. Little is known if this association holds for all adult emergency laparotomy patients and whether it affects 30-day or long-term mortality. Thus, we examined the relationship between increased RDW and postoperative mortality. Furthermore, we investigated the prognostic worth of anisocytosis and explored a possible association between increased RDW and frailty in this cohort. We conducted a retrospective, single centre National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database study at St Mary's Hospital Imperial NHS Trust between January 2014 and April 2018. A total of 356 patients were included. Survival models were developed using Cox regression analysis, whereas RDW and frailty were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Underlying model assumptions were checked, including discrimination and calibration. We internally validated our models using bootstrap resampling. There were 33 (9.3%) deaths within 30-days and 72 (20.2%) overall. Median RDW values for 30-day mortality were 13.8% (IQR 13.1%-15%) in survivors and 14.9% (IQR 13.7%-16.1%) in non-survivors, p = 0.007. Similarly, median RDW values were lower in overall survivors (13.7% (IQR 13%-14.7%) versus 14.9% (IQR 13.9%-15.9%) (p<0.001)). Mortality increased across quartiles of RDW, as did the proportion of frail patients. Anisocytosis was not associated with 30-day mortality but demonstrated a link with overall death rates. Increasing RDW was associated with a higher probability of frailty for 30-day (Odds ratio (OR) 4.3, 95% CI 1.22-14.43, (p = 0.01)) and overall mortality (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.68-14.09, (p = 0.001)). We were able to show that preoperative anisocytosis is associated with greater long-term mortality after emergency laparotomy. Increasing RDW demonstrates a relationship with frailty. Given that RDW is readily available at no additional cost, future studies should prospectively validate the role of RDW in the NELA cohort nationally.