Exploring potential futures: Evaluating the influence of deep uncertainties in urban planning through scenario planning: A case study in Rome, Italy

Abstract

Cities play a critical role in developing adaptable strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change. However, the inherent complexity of urban environments and their uncertain future conditions necessitate exploring innovative approaches and tools to assist the current planning practices. This paper presents a workflow rooted in model-based scenario planning for long-term adaptation planning given uncertain futures. To demonstrate the workflow’s effectiveness, a pertinent case study was conducted in a flood-prone area of Rome. The study employed a land-use change model to examine potential urban growth patterns, considering the uncertain implementation of new poles of attraction. This interdisciplinary study constitutes an initial stride toward implementing uncertainty within urban planning frameworks. Future prospects encompass the integration of multiple models for cross-scale analysis, embracing further critical environmental and social aspects. This research contributes to advancing urban resilience strategies. It enhances the understanding of adapting to an uncertain future in the face of climate change, as urban areas must embrace comprehensive planning to ensure flexible adaptation when faced with climate-driven uncertainties in long-term planning. In conclusion, the study underscores that embracing uncertainty is a challenge and a pivotal opportunity to shape resilient and adaptable urban futures.