Abstract
The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is a widely distributed tree species across Europe, highly sensitive to climate change and global warming. This study illustrates results of a 5-year monitoring time period from eight sites of the ICP-Forests Level II (intensive monitoring network) along the Italian latitudinal gradient. The tree-level relationship between tree growth dynamics and environmental factors, including seasonal climate fluctuations were investigated by means of tree-level Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). Model results revealed that climate was responsible for just a portion of the variability in beech growth dynamics. Even if climatic predictors were highly significant in almost all sites, the model explained nearly 30% of the total variance (with just a maximum value of 71.6%), leaving the remaining variance unexplained and likely connected with forest management trajectories applied to each site (e.g., aged coppice and fully grown high forest). Climate change scenarios were then applied to predict site-specific future responses. By applying climate change scenarios, it was predicted that central and northern Italy would face similar climatic conditions to those currently detected at southern latitudes. A special case study was represented by VEN1 plot (Veneto, Northern Italy) whose current and future climate regimes were grouped in a unique and separated cluster.
Highlights
Forests are believed to provide a large set of ecosystem services in addition to wood and biomass production [1,2,3]
Ecosystem services of forests are related to specific functions, such as growth and carbon stock into woody tissues, carbon sequestration and oxygen enrichment via photosynthesis, regeneration, element cycling, soil development, biodiversity holding, and so on
A wide set of attributes should be taken into account to evaluate the overall functionality of forests and their capacity to provide ecosystem services [11,12]
Summary
Forests are believed to provide a large set of ecosystem services in addition to wood and biomass production [1,2,3]. At least alter, quality and quantity of the ecosystem services that forests provide, affecting resilience and cultural identity of local communities [4,5,6] It is, of primary importance to develop and use reliable and adequate climatic surfaces for the purpose [7,8,9]. Ecosystem services of forests are related to specific functions, such as growth and carbon stock into woody tissues, carbon sequestration and oxygen enrichment via photosynthesis, regeneration, element cycling, soil development, biodiversity holding, and so on. A wide set of attributes should be taken into account to evaluate the overall functionality of forests and their capacity to provide ecosystem services [11,12]
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