Exploring Natural and Social Factors Affecting Road Disruption Patterns and the Duration of Recovery: A Case from Hiroshima, Japan

Abstract

For the past few decades, the occurrence and severity of disasters have been increasing. This study empirically explores factors affecting road disruption patterns and the duration of road recovery based on the road network disruption and recovery record in Hiroshima, Japan, over the last 19 years, using (1) a binary logit model to identify factors affecting the disruption probability of each road link, and (2) a survival model to identify the factors affecting the recovery duration. We divided the factors into social and natural factors, where the former might be easier for policy makers to control. Results show that not only natural factors, but also social factors, particularly who manages the road, significantly affect both the probability of road disruptions and road recovery duration. This implies that the ability and available resources that each road manager has firstly affects the quality of the road, which in turn affects the probability of it being disrupted, and secondly affects the quickness of taking recovery actions. This points to potential avenues for improving coordination across cities, prefectures, and national road managers in managing roads during disasters.