Exploring knowledge creation, capabilities, and relations in a distributed policy foresight system: Case Finland

Abstract

In an uncertain and increasingly interdependent world, cross-sectoral policy foresight is needed to tackle complex phenomena. However, most existing foresight studies have focused on a single sector or domain. This article adopts a systems perspective and explores knowledge creation, capabilities, and relations in a distributed policy foresight system cutting across government sectors and national, regional, and local administrative levels. The article is based on empirical material collected in Finland in 2019, describing the Finnish policy foresight system's existing organizational and systemic foresight capacities. Our results indicate that policy foresight considers relatively narrow future horizons relying heavily on futures knowledge that is accessible in the immediate operating environment. The full potential of foresight is not utilized. Distributed foresight collaboration at the systems level is hindered by lack of coherence, coordination, and collaboration structures. We propose ways to improve the foresight system's performance and point to ecosystem literature as a productive direction for foresight research to further the paradigm of distributed foresight systems.