Exploring high saving rates in China: an analysis based on the 1992–2003 China flow of funds accounts

Abstract

本文以国家统计局公布的1992－2003年中国资金流量表为基础，从收入分配和部 门储蓄倾向两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。 我们发现，尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高，但是，自1992年以来，它实际上呈逐步下降 趋势，其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下 降；企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势，主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高，而在于 其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上； 政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后，于2000年以后急剧上升，其主要原因 在于，通过初次分配和再分配，政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越 大的份额，同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是：为了实现以 提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略，我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配 结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的，加速财政政策向公共财政转型， 增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出，在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的 支付水平，应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。 关键词: 储蓄率 资金流量表 收入分配 On the basis of the 1992–2003 flow of funds accounts for China released by the National Statistics Bureau, this article conducts a comparative analysis of the saving rates of the household, corporate and government sectors from the perspective of income distribution and saving propensity. We found that although the household sector had the highest saving rate, it had actually trended downwards since 1992, as a result of falling labor compensation, property income and income from redistribution. Over this period, the corporate saving rate rose slowly, mainly because of a prolonged period of relatively low wage and interest costs rather than increased profitability. The government saving rate, which remained low in the last century, rose dramatically after 2000. The main reasons for this were the ever‐increasing share of government disposable revenue in national income distribution via primary distribution and redistribution and the sector's increased saving propensity. Our policy recommendations suggest that in order to implement an economic development strategy centered on boosting domestic consumption, China should shift its economic focus to improving the income distribution structure and increasing household income. For this purpose, fiscal policies should be oriented toward increased public financing, public expenditure and social security expenditure and toward higher labor compensation based on increased productivity in the corporate sector. These aims should be taken as the objectives of national macroeconomic regulation.