Exploring Health Effects under Specific Causes of Mortality Based on 90 Definitions of PM2.5 and Cold Spell Combined Exposure in Shanghai, China.

Abstract

In this study, a total of 90 definitions were set up based on six air pollution definitions, five cold spell definitions, and three combined exposure scenarios. The relative risks (RRs) on all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were explored by a model combining a distributed linear lag model with quasi-Poisson regression. The definition in which daily PM2.5 increases more than 75 μg/m3 for at least 2 days and the average temperature falls below the 10th percentile for at least 2 days produced the best model fit performance in all-cause mortality. The high peaks of the health effect were generally observed around the lag days 6-9. The cumulative relative risks (CRRs) were more significant in the simultaneous-exposure scenario and higher in respiratory mortality, where the highest CRR (12.15, 3.69-40.03) was observed in definition P1T5, in which daily PM2.5 increases more than 75 μg/m3, and the average temperature falls below the 2.5th percentile for at least two days. For relative risk due to interaction (RERI), we found positive additive interactions (RERI > 0) between PM2.5 pollution and cold spell, especially in respiratory mortality. Clarifying the definition of combined events can help policymakers to capture health risks and construct more effective risk warning systems.