Exploring Generational Private Mobility Paradigm Shifts through Duration Modeling Analytics: A Greek Case Study

Ioannis Fyrogenis,Ioannis Politis

doi:10.3390/futuretransp1010005

Abstract

In this paper, we explore lifetime private mobility milestones in Greece and identify the factors that affect them, to explore the everchanging mobility landscape. In total, five archetypal private mobility milestones were examined: the age of getting a car driving license and the period until getting a car following that; the age of getting a motorbike driving license; the age of getting a first bicycle as an adult; and the age of first traveling by airplane. To this end, duration modeling and namely Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards models were developed. Results show that mobility paradigms are evolving and are affected by a wide array of factors. Generational differences are particularly highlighted, as younger travelers are less likely to get a car driving license or a car sooner but are more likely to get a bicycle as adults. Higher parents’ income diversely affects multiple mobility milestones. Growing up in rural locations and sustainable transport awareness also significantly affect mode choice related mobility milestones. Men were more likely to get both car and motorbike driving licenses at younger ages. The above results highlight the mobility profiles of Greek citizens and the factors that affect them, while offering insights into a future mobility landscape.

Highlights

The socioeconomic and technological changes and advances societies face, with increasingly intensive rate, are reflected on every facet of human activity
Duration analysis or survival analysis, as it is most commonly known, is a branch of statistics for which the outcome variable of interest is the time until the occurrence of a well–defined event [27]
It is often needed to take into consideration the problem of censored observations

Summary

Introduction

The socioeconomic and technological changes and advances societies face, with increasingly intensive rate, are reflected on every facet of human activity. Understanding the mechanisms behind those life-changing choices is important, as it shapes the mobility behavioral profile of each traveler and the overall profile of their greater community. It is possible to predict future trends and gain a better understanding of mobility issues and challenges allowing for a more future-proof, long term and robust transport planning. During the last decade they have decreased automobile travel, obtained fewer driving licenses and registered fewer vehicles. This was not caused just by decreasing car access, and by increasingly multimodal behavior of car owners as well. The paper indicated that the decrease was more intense for male drivers, and that there were “remarkable similarities between travel behavior changes in Germany and

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Conclusion