Exploring ecosystem responses to coastal exploitation and identifying their spatial determinants: Re-orienting ecosystem conservation strategies for landscape management

Abstract

Coastal ecosystems provide important ecosystem services (ESs) and have been subject to conservation and restoration efforts in China for decades. However, ecosystem responses to coastal exploitation activity and their spatial determinants have not been sufficiently evaluated, which limits the efficacy of ecosystem restoration efforts. To fill these gaps, this study assessed the dominant change trends in ESs in southeastern China since the 1980s using an integrated biophysical model. Moreover, we explored the determinants of ESs, their spatial heterogeneity, and spillover effects via spatial econometrics and geospatial analysis approaches. The results indicate that coastal exploitation, particularly rapid urbanization and land reclamation, profoundly altered landscape composition and further affected ESs. In urbanization hotspots, rapid land use/cover conversion (i.e., wetland, woodland, and grassland losses) and increasingly intensive human activities have substantially lowered carbon stock, soil retention, and habitat quality services while increasing water yield and nitrogen export. Environmental, socioeconomic, and landscape variables were identified as important determinants of ES changes and exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects. Our findings indicate that such indicators are highly useful for ecosystem assessments, modeling, and forecasting for ES management and conservation efforts. The identified spatial determinants and their spillover effects demonstrate that regional landscape planning and ecosystem management must consider environmental, socioeconomic, and landscape indicators from a regionally integrated perspective and coordinate cross-border collaborations from neighboring areas to improve the efficacy of ecological projects. Our findings provide important references for scheme optimization and strategy adjustment for ES management, both in the study region and globally.