Exploring Early COVID-19 Therapies, Variants, and Viral Clearance Dynamics: Insights from a High-Risk Outpatients Study

Abstract

This retrospective observational study investigates the impact of early COVID-19 therapies, including antivirals and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), on time to achieve negative swab results in high-risk outpatients infected with specific Omicron sublineages. The study enrolled 104 patients from Luigi Sacco Hospital in Milan between December 2021 and March 2023, categorizing them based on the Omicron sublineage they were infected with (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/BA.5) and the early treatment they received (antivirals or mAbs). Key data collected included demographic and clinical characteristics, initial and follow-up cycle threshold (Ct) values from qPCR tests, and the interval between swabs. The median age of the participants was 63 years (Interquartile Range [IQR] 54.0-76.5), and 55.8% were male. Among the patients, 15 received mAbs (14.4%), and 99 received antiviral treatments (95.2%) - specifically, Paxlovid (51.9%), Molnupiravir (21.1%), and Remdesivir (12.5%). No patients required hospitalization or experienced mortality during the one-month follow-up period. Regarding Omicron sublineages, 23 patients (22.1%) were infected with BA.1, 53 (51%) with BA.2, and 28 (26.9%) with BA.4/BA.5. The median interval between the initial and follow-up swabs was 6 days (IQR 6.0-7.0). Initial Ct values had a median of 18.5 (IQR 16.5-22.1), which increased to a median of 30.5 (IQR 27.1-33.0) at follow-up, indicating a reduction in viral load. A non-significant trend suggested that patients infected with BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 sublineages might experience a faster increase in Ct values—indicating quicker viral load reduction - compared to those infected with BA.1, regardless of treatment type. However, this trend did not achieve statistical significance (p=0.609), likely due to the limited sample size and the absence of a clear trend curve. In summary, the study did not find a significant association between specific early therapies and the time to achieve swab negativization. These findings underscore the complex dynamics of viral clearance and highlight the need for further research with larger patient cohorts to refine treatment protocols for high-risk COVID-19 patients