Exploring Clusters of Risk and Association With Child Maltreatment in North Carolina Counties.

Abstract

Decision makers face challenges in estimating local risk for child maltreatment and how best to prioritize which factors to intervene upon. Using US Census and survey data for all US counties (N = 3141), we derived US county profiles characterized by the severity of child maltreatment risk factors observed at the county level, such as parental health, health care access, and economic distress. We estimated how five child maltreatment outcomes would vary across the profiles for North Carolina counties (n = 100): total maltreatment reports (including unsubstantiated and substantiated), substantiated neglect, substantiated abuse, whether services were received, and reported child's race/ethnicity. We derived three profiles of county-level child maltreatment risk: high, moderate, and low risk, denoting that predicted risk factors means within profiles were all high, moderate, or low levels compared to counties in other profiles. One risk factor did not follow this pattern: the drug overdose death rate. It was highest in the moderate-risk profile instead of the high-risk profile, as would have been consistent with other factor levels. Moderate-risk counties had the highest predicted rate of child maltreatment reports, with over 20 more reports per 10,000 residents compared to low-risk counties (95% CI, 1.38, 38.86). We included only factors for which aggregate, county-level estimates were available, thus limiting inclusion of all relevant factors. Results suggest the need for increased family-based services and interventions that reduce risk factors such as economic distress and drug overdose deaths. We discuss the implications for tailoring county efforts to prevent child maltreatment.