Exploring City Development Modes under the Dual Control of Water Resources and Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: The Case of Beijing, China

Yan Wang,Mingzhi Yang,Heng Yang,Lishan Zhu,Xuelei Zhang,Weihua Xiao,Yicheng Wang,Baodeng Hou

doi:10.3390/su10093155

Abstract

Water and energy are basic resources for urban development. It is of extreme importance to balance economic development, water and energy security, and environmental sustainability at the city level. Although many studies have focused on energy-related CO2 emissions or water resources, individually, in relation to socioeconomic development, few studies have considered water and energy-related CO2 emissions as synchronous limiting factors. Here, taking Beijing as an example, a partial least squares STIRPAT model—a method that combines partial least squares with the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model—was used to determine the main driving factors of water use and energy-related CO2 emissions at the regional scale from 1996 to 2016. The empirical results showed that the population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization level, technology level, and service level, are all important factors that influence the total water use and energy-related CO2 emissions. Additionally, eight scenarios were established to explore suitable development modes for future years. Consequently, a medium growth rate in socioeconomic status and population, and a high growth rate in the technology and service level, were found to be the most appropriate development modes. This scenario would result in a total water use of 4432.13 million m3 and energy-related CO2 emissions of 173.64 million tons in 2030. The results provide a new perspective for decision makers to explore suitable measures for simultaneously conserving water resources and reducing energy-related CO2 emissions in the context of urban development.

Highlights

Water and energy have become two bottlenecks restricting sustainable socioeconomic growth [1]
The population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, water intensity, and the proportion of added value from tertiary industry were selected as the driving factors to predict the total water use
The variable important in projection (VIP) values of all factors indicated that all these factors are important in influencing the total water use and energy-related CO2 emissions

Summary

Introduction

Water and energy have become two bottlenecks restricting sustainable socioeconomic growth [1]. The long-term requirement for water and energy is increasing with population and economic development, which has aggravated the global fragility of water and energy systems, both regionally and nationally, in the past few decades [2]. Energy, and environmental status are especially threatened in countries or regions experiencing high-speed economic and urbanization development. Among such countries, China is a typical instance in which water and energy status are challenging for high-speed economic development and the aquatic ecosystems and environment are highly stressed [3,4]. The city development modes and policy choices have a significant impact on ensuring water and energy security and sustainable environmental development

Methods

Results

Conclusion