Abstract
In this paper we apply a certain class of non-linear data smoothers (see Turkey (1977) and Mallows (1980)) to the problem of dating turning points in business cycles in four industrial countries. In particular we use the plateau smoothing property of odd-span running medians to analyse ‘peak’ and ‘valley’ plateaus of quarterly GNP growth rates. The end points of peak and valley plateaus are used for dating turning points in business cycles. Those business cycle characteristics are used to find out about relationships between the USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Austria. No joint lead lag relationship can be detected but there are some short periods of coinciding developments.
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