Exploring Bias in Traffic Data Aggregation Resulting from Transition of Traffic States

Abstract

Transportation engineers and researchers heavily use traffic data, which are generally aggregated by predetermined time intervals (e.g., 5 to 15 min). The aggregation process often discards essential information of traffic state transition (e.g., breakdowns). However, the transition of traffic conditions within an aggregation interval is not well understood. This study explored traffic state transition from uncongested to congested regimes that occurred within a predetermined time interval. From two urban freeway locations in Norfolk, Virginia, traffic data archived at 15-min intervals were obtained. A heuristic method based on a Gaussian mixture model was developed to detect the aggregate traffic data that exhibit the transition of traffic states as well as to partition the data statistically into uncongested and congested traffic states. Results show a substantial difference in travel speed (approximately 20 mph) between the two states. In addition, these results illustrate that aggregating these different traffic conditions can cause substantial traffic data aggregation bias by lowering travel speed and flow rates, especially in high traffic flow situations. Finally, new insights into valid traffic data aggregation and speed–flow–concentration relationship development are discussed.