Exploring and validating the clinical risk factors for pancreatic cancer in chronic pancreatitis patients using electronic medical records datasets: three cohorts comprising 2,960 patients.

Abstract

BackgroundPatients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) have an increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer (PC). The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of PC in CP patients.MethodsElectronic medical records (EMRs) of CP patients from two cohorts were collected, and a logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the risk factors for PC. Subsequently, we validated the value of the risk prediction model with the EMRs of a third cohort.ResultsThe derivation cohort consisted of 2,545 CP patients, and among them, 14 patients developed PC 7 years after CP diagnosis. Cyst of the pancreas [COP; odds ratio (OR): 4.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11 to 18.40, P=0.033], loss of weight (LW; OR: 3.21, 95% CI: 0.76 to 12.91, P=0.096) and high platelet (PLT) count (OR: 1.01 per 1 increment, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.01, P=0.042) were independent risk factors for PC among CP patients. A risk prediction equation was constructed as follows: ln[p/(1–p)] = –6.68 + 1.55COP + 1.23LW + 0.0046PLT. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of our risk score were 0.83 and 0.72 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A score >0.0128 and >0.0122 had the best balance between sensitivity and specificity in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.ConclusionsIn CP patients, LW, COP and high PLT count were identified as novel predictors of PC. A risk prediction model based on these factors exhibited moderate predictive value for CP patients.