Exploratory Research on Exploitation Potentials for Forest-biomass based on the Social Development

Abstract

With rising energy prices and growing pollution, biomass energy development has become a new research focus. The assessment potential for traditional biomass was only based on a single natural perspective, while ignoring the greatest social factors in the development of biomass energy cycle. Therefore, the research will consider some basic social factors, such as demographic change, food demand, food production and other factors, for the development of biomass energy. The factors based on different scenarios will be predicted by statistical methods, scenario analysis, econometric analysis method, etc; based on predictions, areas for returning to forest or returning to farmland will be calculated ,thus calculating the corresponding potentials for biomass energy development. The research concluded that the potential for biomass energy will be up to 1.116 billion,1.272billion,1.412billion respectively in 2020,2030, 2040, 2050.,equaling to 6.73,7.79,9.04 million tons of standard coal; When considering the social factors, a total of 108 biomass energy development potential results are obtained; the highest potential can reach 1.116billion 1.272 billion 1.412 billion 1.551 billion tons respectively, equaling to 7.48,8.52, 9.46,10.39 million tons of standard coal; the lowest can reach 0.965 billion,1.105 billion,1.239 billion,1.376 billion respectively, equaling to 6.47,7.40,8.30,9.22 million tons of coal. It concludes that before and middle social factors have a great impact on biomass energy development potential, which may cause potential decline. But in the long run, the social factors will increase the development potential for biomass energy.