Abstract
BackgroundIn responding to Covid-19, governments have tried to balance protecting health while minimizing gross domestic product (GDP) losses. We compare health-related net benefit (HRNB) and GDP losses associated with government responses of the UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain and Sweden from UK healthcare payer perspective.MethodsWe compared observed cases, hospitalizations and deaths under ‘mitigation’ to modelled events under ‘no mitigation’ to 20 July 2020. We thus calculated healthcare costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and HRNB at £20,000/QALY saved by each country. On per population (i.e. per capita) basis, we compared HRNB with forecast reductions in 2020 GDP growth (overall or compared with Sweden as minimal mitigation country) and qualitatively and quantitatively described government responses.ResultsThe UK saved 3.17 (0.32–3.65) million QALYs, £33 (8–38) billion healthcare costs and £1416 (220–1637) HRNB per capita at £20,000/QALY. Per capita, this is comparable to £1455 GDP loss using Sweden as comparator and offsets 46.1 (7.1–53.2)% of total £3075 GDP loss. Germany, Spain, and Sweden had greater HRNB per capita. These also offset a greater percentage of total GDP losses per capita. Ireland fared worst on both measures. Countries with more mask wearing, testing, and population susceptibility had better outcomes. Highest stringency responses did not appear to have best outcomes.ConclusionsOur exploratory analysis indicates the benefit of government Covid-19 responses may outweigh their economic costs. The extent that HRNB offset economic losses appears to relate to population characteristics, testing levels, and mask wearing, rather than response stringency.
Highlights
Covid-19 has caused severe health and economic damage since its emergence in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019
Spain, and Sweden had greater health-related net benefit (HRNB) per capita. These offset a greater percentage of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses per capita
The economic damage has been dramatic with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reducing its forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2020 in the UK from 1.4% in January to -9.8% in October.[2,3]
Summary
Covid-19 has caused severe health and economic damage since its emergence in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019. As of 13th November 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has reported over 50 million confirmed cases and 1.29 million deaths globally.[1] In the UK there have been over a million cases and over 60,000 deaths. The economic damage has been dramatic with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reducing its forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2020 in the UK from 1.4% in January to -9.8% in October.[2,3] Similar reductions have been observed across Europe and the world. In responding to covid-19, governments have tried to balance protecting health while minimising Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses. We compare health-related net benefit (HRNB) and GDP losses associated with government responses of the UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and Sweden from UK healthcare payer perspective
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